April 10, 2025 — the date of the new tariffs introduction on all imports from the United States without exception, a mirror response to the previously introduced tariffs on Chinese imports.
In fact, China is now under increased tariffs of 34% plus the previous 10-15% on agriculture, machinery, and energy equipment.
Note that only cargoes that left US ports before April 10 and arrived in China before May 13, 2025, are not subject to the new tariffs. Take advantage of this grace period to execute your shipments.
A damaging impact of more than $500 billion is the closest marker of China-US trade.
Newest update: Trump intends to impose up to 104% of tariffs on China on April 9 in retaliation.
Details of China's response: Escalation of trade war
- A complaint was filed with the WTO, calling US tariffs “unilateral intimidation tactics”.
- 11 US companies are added to the “list of unreliable organizations”, including drone manufacturers. Notable names are Skydio Inc., Illumina Inc., Huntington Ingalls, Teledyne Brown Engineering.
- Export controls were imposed on 16 US companies to prohibit exports of Chinese dual-use goods (15 companies in industries including defense and aerospace + the non-profit group Coalition For A Prosperous America, which has in the past advocated for the Trump administration to decouple the US economy from China).
- Controls on the export of seven types of rare earth minerals to the United States, including samarium, gadolinium, and terbium, have been announced.
- Restrictions were imposed on about 30 US organizations, mainly in defense-related industries.
- Impact on the agricultural sector: Imports of U.S. sorghum from C&D (USA) INC, as well as incoming shipments of poultry and bone meal from three U.S. firms, were immediately halted.
China's largest imports from the United States are soybeans, oilseeds, and grains, worth $13.4 billion in 2024, followed by $14.7 billion in miscellaneous fuels and $15.3 billion in electrical equipment, according to U.S. trade data.
Global impact
China has ambitious plans to grow its economy by 5% in 2025, despite Trump's tariffs. To achieve this, domestic demand will be stimulated. The Chinese authorities are actively preparing for an escalation of the trade war.
Sectors at risk:
- Agriculture
- Energy
- Defense industry
- Semiconductors
- Medical imaging
- Logistics serving US-China trade
Short-term strategy for LSP
- Customs and compliance vulnerabilities: HS code reclassification, updating cargo statuses, duties, and documentation red tape.
- Decrease in the volume of transportation across the Pacific Ocean: A decrease in the number of orders and empty voyages on the Asia-North America routes, which are most common in high-tariff business sectors such as agriculture and aerospace. This is expected as nearly 40% of US container imports come from China.
- Volatility of freight rates: Since the beginning of this year, SCFI freight rates have fallen by more than 44%. Further fluctuations are expected as shipping lines reduce capacity and diverted vessels sail away from affected corridors.
- Disruption of certain industries: The electronics industry is the first to be affected, followed by rare earth metals and then soybeans. This may lead to an urgent need for price revisions, rerouting, or access to specialized USPs by customers in certain industries.
- Asia-Pacific ripple effects: Neighboring hubs such as Vietnam and Thailand will also experience a bottleneck syndrome as companies rush to reduce their presence in China while demand in Asia unexpectedly increases.
Mid-term step-by-step plan
The following quarters of 2025 are already being predicted not only as a trend in supply chain volumes but also in global trade behavior, including:
- Alternative trade routes: Southeast Asia and Mexico are already demanding duty-free alternatives to China, from which carriers will shape their routes and production facilities and assembly processes away from.
- Focus on intra-Asian shipments: Strengthening regional operations, capacity reallocation, price changes, and congested ports in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
- Expanding influence in new markets: Trans-Pacific operations are shifting to trade routes in Africa, Europe, and South America.
- Margin costs for small and medium-sized businesses: Need to adapt to longer transit times, higher workloads, and fewer large customers.
Long-term opportunity actions
It is not the volume of your shipments that will determine your victory in the trade war, but the flexibility and adaptability of your logistics business.
- New global hubs: India, Indonesia, and Mexico are looking to replace China with both production capacity and services for global manufacturers, freight forwarders, and carriers. The need for local partners and last-mile logistics will increase.
- Go digital or go home: Real-time cargo tracking, rate calculations, AI logistics management, smart routing, and other digital solutions will become more and more critical to day-to-day smooth operations.
- Multistop trade operation: Be prepared for new models of trade “China + 1” or “China + 2”, where the search for suppliers, routes, etc., is diversified regionally. It is also an opportunity to develop a flexible forwarding network.
- Growth of regionalization: The global supply chain is fragmenting into regional blocks — North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe. Freight forwarders will need skills to work with different regions, not just Asia and North America.
Keep your logistics resilient
Use the SeaRates Logistics Explorer tool now to adjust logistics operations and successfully cope with current global trade challenges. With this online freight calculator, you can:
- Find real-time & market-transparent tariffs for affordable shipping by sea, air, road, and rail
- Compare carriers and rate options to find the most appropriate and flexible terms for your shipments
- Instantly booking to guarantee the prices and cargo space
- Plan logistics with confidence and proper calculations
Find out more about Logistics Explorer web integration and API to adapt your trading with profit
Wondering how to address your supply chain needs in the current circumstances? Reach out to us at [email protected] for streamlined and tailored logistics solutions.
