Any business strives to protect its margins and attract customer loyalty during winter. This is the perfect time to get ahead of competitors who are still returning from the holiday break.
Most of the market believes that delivery pressure decreases after December 25 or January 1. However, post-holiday shipping has its own delivery dynamics, and if you are not prepared for it and relax too early, you may pay for it with the stability and quality of your supplies.
Let's find out how to manage the stability of trade operations during the volatile post-year-end logistics that follow.
What is post-Christmas delivery?
Post-Christmas shipping is the period of logistics operations immediately following the holiday season, from late December to mid- or late January.
This is where we fall into a trap: advertising activity declines worldwide, and one might think that logistics activity does too. However, supply chains continue to operate. They even continue to thrive!
Some notable features of this period:
- Orders placed in the last few days before Christmas
- A sharp increase in returns after the holidays
- New January purchases and sales
- Delayed deliveries (these are shipments that did not make it during the peak load)
Well, it's a trap because this kind of logistics is less noticeable than the holiday rush with its noisy peak periods. That's where the challenge lies: the delivery capacity drops, but the volumes remain high enough to cause congestion. This is especially so for “last mile” deliveries.
Why is post-holiday shipping still critical in January?
January is not a slow month.
First, backlogs continue to arrive, and orders from December or even November are being delivered late due to carrier congestion or warehouse/port restrictions.
Second, post-holiday deliveries are critical to operations. E-commerce activity does not stop after Christmas. Deferred and new supplies add to current delays and collapse delivery networks.
Finally, third. Why else might there be a mismatch between demand and available resources? Companies often mark January as the end of the season for summing up. Logistics providers often operate at reduced capacity in early January.
Well, January is not becoming a month of quiet refreshment.
The main logistics challenges after Christmas and the New Year
There are three main reasons why delivery after Christmas is often unpredictable:
Network congestion hangover
Port hubs, sorting centers, and transshipment terminals may still be dealing with the excess shipments that accumulated in December. Even when volumes decrease, the overload does not disappear overnight.
Capacity volatility
In practice, carriers tend to quickly reduce their peak season resources. This instability is typically perceived by shippers as unexplained delivery delays due to unclear transit times or reduced service levels (compared to December).
Lack of productive communication
Staff and support play an important role. This transition period affects warehouse productivity, customer service responsiveness, and last-mile delivery efficiency. Unexpected changes in ETA, late departures from port, or other exceptions in the shipment route are particularly acute for the customer. If the supply chain logistics providers do not provide transparent live cargo updates and real-time analytics on shipments, they can forget about regular shipments and trusted service.
Returns and reverse logistics after the holidays
We have come to a key factor — the returns and reverse logistics.
Whether it is e-commerce or the return of freight equipment/backhauls, January is traditionally the busiest month for this issue.
Returned goods move in the opposite direction from the initial shipments, which causes intense competition for warehouse space, labor, and transport capacity. Processing returns requires inspection, restocking, refurbishment, or disposal. This means that the demands for operational resources can double.
Inefficiently organized reverse logistics slows down outgoing shipments, increases costs, and delays related financial transactions (refunds, which are most critical for customers during this period).
Thus, smooth delivery after the holidays requires balancing outgoing and incoming logistics simultaneously.
Regional differences in post-year-end logistics
| Region/Country | Jan 2025 Reality | Jan 2026 Trend |
| United States | Elevated freight & ecommerce and return volumes with reduced post-peak carrier capacity. | January continues as an extended post-peak phase. |
| Europe (EU) | Slower restart due to public holidays and reduced parcel and ship schedules. | Predictable early-January slowdown remains. |
| United Kingdom | High return volumes after year-end promotions. | Returns-driven January pressure persists. |
| Asia-Pacific | Capacity uncertainty ahead of Lunar New Year. | Compressed shipping window before the next peak. |
| China | Short operational window before Lunar New Year shutdowns. | Earlier cut-offs and capacity tightening. |
| Australia & New Zealand | Summer leave season reduces workforce availability. | Extended holiday slowdown into mid-January. |
| Middle East | Strong inbound flows from post-holiday export markets. | Import-driven volatility remains. |
| Latin America | Gradual restart with customs and staffing constraints. | Slow normalization after year-end. |
| Cross-Border | High variability from misaligned calendars and customs backlogs. | January remains a low-predictability month. |
Across regions, post-year-end logistics is defined less by volume and more by uneven recovery, reduced capacity, and low predictability. In 2026, January is expected to remain a transition month when operational stability lags behind calendar normalization.
What should freight and e-commerce companies do in January?
Logistics planning in January is a way to maintain operational stability and gain a significant competitive advantage. What exactly should this plan look like? Let's dig deeper into this issue:
1. Capacity planning
What to do:
- Record the actual available capacity of carriers for January (not December peaks);
- Add a +15–25% time buffer to standard SLAs for delivery;
- Check cut-off times for warehouses and hubs in the first 2–3 weeks of January.
2. Returns-first approach
What to do:
- Allocate separate time slots or shipping lanes for processing returns;
- Transfer part of outbound shipments to after the initial processing of returns;
- Define SLAs for refunds and restocking in advance.
This is critical because returns in January directly block outbound flows.
3. Prioritize orders
What to do:
- Divide orders into A/B/C:
- A — critical (VIP, cross-border, time-sensitive)
- B — standard
- C — low-priority/internal stock moves
- Link order types to different delivery windows.
Forget the idea of ‘first-come, first-served’ (passive queue without priorities). In January, you need to manage queues actively (with priorities and rules).
4. Enhanced visibility
What to do:
- Monitor milestone-based tracking (dispatch → hub → last mile);
- Identify delays at the node level, not at the final delivery level;
- Launch daily monitoring of exceptions (late, stuck, failed delivery).
This way, you are not just speeding up delivery in January. Preparing post-year-end logistics allows you to manage supply and return capacities in a fast-paced and volatile market.
Make a strategy for post-holiday shipping
So, now you don't picture post-Christmas shipping as the end of the peak season. You have an understanding that this is the path from peak load to a period of long-term sustainability.
The results of your freight business in January determine the efficiency of returns processing and operational readiness for the first quarter of the year, as well as shape the loyal or negative attitude of customers and partners. Everyone is just waiting to see if you will pass this persistence test.
A smart freight strategy requires expert effort, which will certainly pay off in effective trade, whether by sea, air, road, or rail. You will only win this game if you understand the current challenges and implement ways to overcome them.
May the coming year 2026 bring prosperity to your business and courage to achieve new goals! Leave the practical part to us.
Sincerely, your SeaRates team.
